Crude Oil Price May Resume Its Decline Vs US Dollar

Crude Oil Price May Resume Its Decline Vs US Dollar

  • Crude oil price after trading towards $52.00-52.05 against the US Dollar found sellers and moved down.
  • There was break below a major bullish trend line with support at $51.60 on the hourly chart.
  • Recently in the US, the Baker Hughes Rig Counts posted a reading of 722, up from the last 720.

 

US Baker Hughes Rig Counts and GDP

Recently in the US, there were a few important releases like the Baker Hughes Rig Counts and US GDP for Q1 2017. The Baker Hughes Rig Counts was expected to post a rise to 725, but it came in at 722, up from the last 720.

 

The US Gross Domestic Product preliminary reading for Q1 2017 was above the forecast, as there was a rise of 1.2%, more than the last 0.7%. The report by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis also mentioned that the “price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.6 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 2.0 percent in the fourth quarter (table 4). The PCE price index increased 2.4 percent, compared with an increase of 2.0 percent“.

 

Overall, the results were positive, and helped the US Dollar, and pushed oil price below the $51.60-50 support zone.

 

Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis

This past week, there were good upsides in crude oil price as it moved above the $51.00 and $51.50 resistance levels against the US Dollar. However, the price was seen struggling above the $52.00 level, and made a short-term top near $52.05.

 

Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis

 

The price started a decline and broke a major area at $51.60-50 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. The decline was such that the price even broke the $50 support and traded towards $48.40-20. A low was formed at $48.21 before the price started a recovery and moved above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the $52.04 high to $48.21 low.

 

At the moment, the price is trading above $49.50, but struggling to trade above a major pivot area at $50.00-50.10. The stated area also coincides with the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the $52.04 high to $48.21 low. So, it won’t be easy for buyers to break it, and price may move down back towards $49.00-49.20 in the near term.

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