AUD/USD Forecast – Aussie Dollar at Risk of Further Declines

AUD/USD Forecast – Aussie Dollar at Risk of Further Declines

  • – The Aussie dollar recently struggled and moved towards 0.7635 against the US Dollar.
  • – The AUD/USD pair broke the 0.7685 support and a bullish trend line on the 4-hours chart.
  • – Australia’s trade balance for Jan 2017 released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics posted a trade surplus of 1,302M, less than the forecast of 3,800M.

 

Australian Trade Balance

Earlier today in Australia, the trade balance for Jan 2017 was released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The market was expecting the difference in the value of imports and exports to post a surplus of 3,800M in Jan 2017.

 

However, the result was on the lower side, as the trade surplus was 1,302M. The last trade surplus was revised to 3,334M. Imports rose 4% and exports declined by 3% in Jan 2017. The report added that the seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits fell $945m (3%) to $31,796m. Non-monetary gold fell $671m (39%) and non-rural goods fell $403m (2%). Rural goods rose $57m (1%) and net exports of goods under merchanting rose $1m (17%). Services credits rose $72m (1%)”.

 

The result failed to help the Aussie dollar, and increased bearish pressure on AUDUSD, resulting in a dip towards 0.7650. More losses are likely if the pressure remains intact around 0.7650 and 0.7665.

 

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Aussie dollar failed near 0.7740 recently against the US Dollar and made a downside move. It broke the 0.7685 support area and also moved below the 100 simple moving average (H4).

 

AUD/USD Technical Analysis Aussie US Dollar

 

Also, there was a break below a bullish trend line on the 4-hours chart at 0.7688, igniting a downside move. He AUD/USD pair traded as low as 0.7636 where it found buyers. Now, there is a connecting bearish trend line formed with resistance at 0.7675.

 

The 0.7675 resistance also coincides with the 100 simple moving average and the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.7740 high to 0.7636 low. It looks like any corrections from the current levels towards 0.7680 may find sellers. On the downside, a break below 0.7636 could open the doors for a test of 0.7610 and 0.7600 in the short term.

 

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