AUD/USD Forecast – Aussie Dollar Forming Breakout Pattern

AUD/USD Forecast – Aussie Dollar Forming Breakout Pattern

  • – The Aussie dollar mostly consolidated versus the US dollar this week with support at 0.7610-20.
  • – There is a major contracting triangle pattern formed with support at 0.7625 on the 4-hours chart of AUD/USD.
  • – The Chinese Trade Balance figure for Jan 2017 released by the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China posted a trade surplus of $51.400B.

 

China’s Trade Balance

Today in China, the Trade Balance figures were released for Jan 2017 by the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China. The market was expecting a trade surplus of $47.900B (balance between exports and imports of total goods and services).

 

However, the result was better than the forecast, as the trade surplus was $51.400B in Jan 2017. Imports of goods and services rose 16.7%, more than the forecast of 10.0%, and above the last +3.1%. Exports of goods and services increased 7.9%, more than the forecast of 3.3%, and much better than the last revised decline of 6.2%.

 

Overall, the result was positive, helping the risk sentiment and AUDUSD to stay above the 0.7620 support. There are chances of more gains in AUD/USD if the pair sentiment remains intact, and it stays above the 0.7620-00 support zone.

 

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Aussie dollar after trading as high as 0.7694 against the US Dollar started a correction. It traded as low as 0.7605 where it found support, and then a consolidation phase was initiated. The AUD/USD pair started trading in a range with support at 0.7620-00.

 

AUD/USD Technical Analysis Aussie US Dollar

 

Currently, there is a major contracting triangle pattern formed with support at 0.7625 on the 4-hours chart. On the upside, the range breakout resistance is at 0.7650-60, and on the downside, the triangle support is at 0.7625. The range resistance also coincides with the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.7694 high to 0.7605 low.

 

So, if there is a break higher, there are chances of AUD/USD retesting the last high at 0.7694. The current pattern can be considered as consolidation ahead of the next break higher. However, the pair needs to stay above 0.7600 if it has to move higher.

 

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